New research from Clean Air Task Force (CATF) explores how different timelines for achieving net-zero emissions could shape Africa’s energy, land, water, and development future. The study, Exploring Net-Zero Emissions Pathways for Africa Across Different Timelines , uses the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to examine how various levels of climate ambition affect the continent’s growth and resource use, highlighting critical trade-offs for policymakers.
“Our modeling shows that Africa’s climate choices are fundamentally development choices,” said Michael Dioha, Senior Energy Researcher at CATF and lead author of the study. “Reaching net-zero by 2050 delivers faster emissions reductions and helps avoid long-term emissions lock-in, but it also requires steep up-front investments and can disrupt food and water systems if not carefully managed. Policymakers must balance the urgency of climate action with the realities of economic growth, food security, and resource competition.”
The paper highlights the potential social and economic trade-offs of early action. The sooner Africa aims for net-zero emissions, the greater the immediate costs and disruptions. A 2050 net-zero goal could lock in climate benefits sooner but also raise near-term mitigation costs (around $78 per ton of CO₂), increase competition for land and water, and nearly double staple food prices due to cropland loss. Pursuing net-zero by 2070 or 2100 reduces the short-term economic burden (down to $68 per ton) and eases pressure on food systems and water demand, but results in far higher cumulative emissions and delayed climate benefits. The study finds that without new climate mitigation policies, Africa’s emissions could increase by nearly 500% by 2100.
According to the study, Africa’s path to net-zero will differ by region, reflecting diverse energy needs, resource endowments, and economic structures. While Western and Southern Africa face harder transitions due to significant fossil fuel dependence, Eastern Africa can more readily leverage renewables like hydro, geothermal, and wind if infrastructure and investment challenges are addressed.
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“This research underscores that there is no one-size-fits-all pathway for Africa,” said Lily Odarno, Regional Director of CATF’s Africa program.” Each region, and indeed, country must chart a course that reflects its own development goals and resource realities—whether that’s building out power infrastructure, investing in institutions, or balancing land, water, and energy needs. A successful transition will be one that is not just low-carbon , but also equitable and transformative. “
Key recommendations from the paper include:
- Aligning climate action with land and development realities to safeguard food security and rural livelihoods.
- Building institutional capacity and regional cooperation to support infrastructure scale-up and climate finance access.
- Investing in reliable electricity systems through grid modernization and firm capacity like hydropower, geothermal, nuclear, and gas with carbon capture and storage .
- Coordinating resource planning across energy, water, and agriculture sectors to manage trade-offs.
- Pursuing flexible, sequenced transitions tailored to national capacities and priorities.
Read the executive summary here and the full paper in Environmental Research here .
