Best MLB Bets for Tuesday, September 16th: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

Pennant races are coming down to the wire! As a Mets fan, that’s unfortunate, but at least it gives us more games where we can expect teams to field their best lineups. Let’s go!

Season Record: 12-8-2, +3.95 Units

Cubs at Pirates

Pick: Pirates ML (-120 Fanatics)

We get a real marquee pitching matchup here. Cade Horton, the current betting favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, goes up against Paul Skenes, a virtual lock to win NL Cy Young.

It’s tough to bet on the Pirates in general, but with Skenes on the mound they always have a good shot even with their usual popgun offense.

Skenes’ overall greatness is of course no secret, but he’s incredibly consistent as well. He’s gone at least 5 innings in all but 1 of his 30 starts, and he’s allowed more than 2 earned runs just 5 times.

The only real risk here is that he’s in an unannounced load management slowdown. He went just 5 IP, 16 batters, and 64 pitches in his start last week in Baltimore. Then again, that might have been a one-off occurrence as he faces a contender tonight.

He has pitched 178 innings on the year, after going a total of 160 IP last season, so he’s on track for a very normal 30 IP increase or so.

He faces a Cubs lineup that just has not been that good lately as they’re slashing just .236/.312/.390 since the All-Star break, and will play definitely without Kyle Tucker and quite possibly without Seiya Suzuki, who has missed the past 4 games with an undisclosed illness.

Cade Horton has been terrific for the Cubs, but much better in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field (1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) than on the road (3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).

Meanwhile, the Pirates actually play somewhat well in the land of the Three Rivers and delicious Primanti Sandwiches, going 42-34 on the season at home with a 9.9% ROI as per VSiN.

Let’s roll with the Pirates and their ace here.

Orioles at White Sox

Pick: White Sox ML (-124 FanDuel)

It’s easy to dream on the future of these two teams — more so the 2026 future for the Orioles and a bit further out for the Sox. But I like how they’re each rolling out their promising young bats.

As for today’s pitchers, Shane Smith made the All-Star game for the White Sox, but then hit the IL. Since his return on August 1st he’s gone 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, with a 23.6% K% and a somewhat high 9.6% BB%.

He’s been good at home all year with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at whatever the White Sox call their home park now (Rate Field apparently).

Orioles starter Dean Kremer is kind of the definition of league average. He’s got a 4.43 ERA on the year with a 1.26 WHIP and 20.1% K%. They’re all pretty much his career levels as well.

He’s had some forearm issues and only went 3 IP his last start, which was 11 days ago. In his two outings before that he yielded 16 hits and 13 earned runs in just 8 innings total.

Not sure what we get out of Kremer tonight, and the Orioles’ depleted bullpen is not suited to go any length.

The O’s do get Jordan Westburg back tonight, but no one in the current lineup is hitting particularly well lately.

I’ll go with the White Sox.